The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has reiterated its cocoa deficit forecast for the 2012/13 season after a public leak led the market to erroneously believe the shortfall was greater than expected.
An ICCO annual survey was leaked to the public last week and put the deficit at 310,000 MT. That figure was significantly higher than the 160,000 MT estimate in the ICCO’s latest Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics (QBCS) published in November.
However, the ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWGS), composed of experts in the cocoa field, met last week and issued a statement maintaining the 160,000 MT figure from November.
It said that cocoa beans in transit were higher than had been estimated and noted an increase in invisible stocks i.e. stocks held in locations not reporting to the ICCO survey.
The ICCO said the leak may have had an impact on future prices, particularly on 23 January 2014.