Stronger cocoa demand is bullish after recent data from exporter-group Gepex showed that November cocoa processing rose +11% y/y to 49,373 MT, data research firm barchart.com reported.
“Nearby cocoa futures rose to a peak of $2783 per ton during the week of November 18. The previous high in 2019 came in early July at $2602. The price of cocoa had been trending higher throughout this year. Other than a brief spike to the downside during the end of the March-May roll period, the price had remained above $2088 per ton throughout the year,” Hecht said.
On the bullish side is reduced cocoa supply from Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer. Recent data from the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) showed that government cocoa purchases from Ghana farmers totalled 317,073 MT during Oct 1-Nov 28, down -1.8% y/y.
The Cocobod cut its Ghana 2019/20 cocoa production estimate on September 13 to a three-year low of 800,000 MT from a previous estimate of 950,000 due to an outbreak of the swollen shoot cocoa disease that has affected about 16% of Ghana's cocoa crop. (source barchart.com)
18 Dec 2019
17 Dec 2019
ICCO daily price (SDRs/tonne)
ICCO daily price (US$/tonne)
London futures (£ sterling/tonne)
New York futures (US$/tonne)
Data published by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) last month indicated that during the last crop season, 2018/2019, world cocoa grindings increased by 4.6%. The grindings reached 4.807 million tons, up by 211,000 tons over the previous year.
As at December 1, 2019, cumulative arrivals of cocoa beans at Ivorian ports were reported at 694,000 tons, down by two percent from 708,000 tons attained during the same period during the 2018/19 season. A total of 781 million tons have been supplied from Côte d’Ivoire in the past two months, Ghana web reported.
Ample cocoa supplies from the Côte d’Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, continued to weigh on cocoa prices after data from Côte d’Ivoire government showed that farmers sent 88,273 MT of cocoa to ports during Dec 9-15, up +31% y/y. Also, Côte d’Ivoire farmers sent a total of 883,563 MT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Dec 15, up +7.6% y/y.
A negative for cocoa is beneficial rain in West Africa that may boost Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana cocoa yields. Satellite imagery from the US Climate Prediction Center for December 8-14 showed above-average rainfall across most of the Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. (source barchart.com)