Data published in the ICCO’s latest Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, up to the beginning of August 2020, estimates there will be a surplus of 18,000 tonnes in the 2018/19 season, which runs from October to September, down from a previous forecast of 36,000 tonnes.
For crop season 19/20, where COVID-19 is likely to have an impact on global consumption, the ICCO is posting a deficit of nearly 80k mt and now they revised to a surplus of 42k mt, which means, it increases its S&D (supply & demand) by 122k mt.
“The impact of coronavirus experienced across chocolate confectionery processing and sales facilities has contributed to a year of declining grindings,” the ICCO stated in its quarterly report.
Grinding figures are used as a barometer for demand and the ICCO reports figures rising by 11% in Asia to 1.166 million tonnes; 3% in Africa, the world’s largest producer, to 991,000 tonnes; 4% in the Americas to 903,000 tonnes; and 1% in Europe to 1.724 million tonnes.
“Efforts to keep supplies flowing and to curb the COVID-19 pandemic from spreading have been a priority for producing countries. Cocoa production has generally shown resilience but concerns still remain as COVID-19 prevails,” the ICCO said in its report.
- Article updated 3/9/20 with new headline to clarify surplus estimate is for next year's crop not 2018-19, as previously stated.