ICCO halves its cocoa surplus estimate for 209/20 season

By Anthony Myers

- Last updated on GMT

Pic: ConfectioneryNews
Pic: ConfectioneryNews

Related tags Cocoa coronavirus

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic has led the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) to halve its forecast for the expected global cocoa surplus in the 2019/20 season as demand for beans from chocolate manufactures slows.

Data published in the ICCO’s latest Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, up to the beginning of August 2020, estimates there will be a surplus of 18,000 tonnes in the 2018/19 season, which runs from October to September, down from a previous forecast of 36,000 tonnes.

For crop season 19/20, where COVID-19 is likely to have an impact on global consumption, the ICCO is posting a deficit of nearly 80k mt and now they revised to a surplus of 42k mt, which means, it increases its S&D (supply & demand) by 122k mt.

grindings ICCO 2018-19

The impact of coronavirus experienced across chocolate confectionery processing and sales facilities has contributed to a year of declining grindings​,” the ICCO stated in its quarterly report.

Grinding figures are used as a barometer for demand and the ICCO reports figures rising by 11% in Asia to 1.166 million tonnes; 3% in Africa, the world’s largest producer, to 991,000 tonnes; 4% in the Americas to 903,000 tonnes; and 1% in Europe to 1.724 million tonnes.

Efforts to keep supplies flowing and to curb the COVID-19 pandemic from spreading have been a priority for producing countries. Cocoa production has generally shown resilience but concerns still remain as COVID-19 prevails​,” the ICCO said in its report.

  • Article updated 3/9/20 with new headline to clarify surplus estimate is for next year's crop not 2018-19, as previously stated.

Related topics Commodities Cocoa & Sugar COVID-19

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1 comment

From deficit to surplus

Posted by Carlos Schröder-Castendyck,

Dear Anthony,

I hope my message finds you well.

Crop season 18/19, which you mention above, remains unchanged at a deficit of 52k mt.

For crop season 19/20 (which is the actual season and where COVID-19 might/will have an impact on global consumption), the ICCO was posting a deficit of nearly 80k mt and now they revised to a surplus of 42k mt. This means, they increase their S&D by 122k mt.

Not sure how you are interpreting the figures in your article. Happy to hear.

Best, Carlos

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