Commodities

ICCO predicts record production of cocoa and supply surplus for ongoing season

By Anthony Myers contact

- Last updated on GMT

Cocoa demand is seen to be recovering from the decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Pic: ConfectioneryNews
Cocoa demand is seen to be recovering from the decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Pic: ConfectioneryNews

Related tags: Cocoa, Icco

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its forecasts for the 2020-21 cocoa year, along with estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2019-20 cocoa year.

With data collated up until the beginning of August 2021, the ICCO reports a record-high projection of 5.141 million tonnes now anticipated for world production cocoa volume.

Significant rains

The news comes after reports of significant rains last week in most of Cote d’Ivoire’s cocoa growing regions that will significantly help produce a large and good quality crop during the first three months of the October-to-March harvest.

Cote d’Ivoire is the world's top cocoa producer, and its farmers said the main crop was developing well, with many pods almost ripe, and a few areas beginning to harvest.

In the eastern region of Abengourou, known for the good quality of its beans, farmers said harvesting has started, with buyers offering between 600 and 650 CFA franc ($1.17) per kilogramme.

"The cocoa has done well. The trees are full of pods for many pickings until at least December. But farmers have started to hold back their beans in anticipation of the new price​," Narcisse Ekpan, who farms near Abengourou, told local media.

The new price is expected in early October.

Outlook

Regarding the global situation, the ICCO said that though the pandemic triggered a shutdown of activities resulting in depressed commodity demand and supply disruptions, vaccination exercises have led countries to open and this is prompting a better outlook for commodities.

It said cocoa demand is seen to be recovering from the decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic as the reopening of economies (retail facilities among others) has contributed to an improved utilization growth of cocoa. As far as cocoa supply is concerned, a record production is expected and a supply surplus is anticipated for the ongoing season.

For the current 2020-21 season, world production and grindings are projected to be higher than previously forecast. Compared to the figure published in the previous issue of the Bulletin (July 20201), world production is forecast to attain a record level at 5.141 million tonnes (up by 117,000 tonnes).

The global production surplus is now forecast at 230,000 tonnes, compared with the Secretariat’s earlier projection of a surplus of 165,000 tonnes.

Total statistical stocks of cocoa beans at the end of the 2020/21 season should therefore increase to 1.963 million tonnes, which is equivalent to 40.4% of the projected grindings for 2020-21, the ICCO said in a statement.

  • Additional source: Nasdaq.com

Related topics: Commodities, Cocoa & Sugar, COVID-19

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