New data from the market platform Coupa shows sales are soaring this Valentine’s Day.
Valentine’s Day purchases attract shoppers’ spend in the first big seasonal sales event of 2025. While production volumes and cost hikes indicate the fragility of the cocoa sector, which has traditionally underpinned chocolate production, consumers are still showing their appreciation where it counts: at the tills.
Recent data from Coupa, a cloud-based total spend management platform, reveals that 2025 Valentine’s Day sales see purchases increase by 512%. Coupa, responsible for more than $1bn in spend management and $7tn in transactional data, drew on insights from multinational confectionery companies, including Nestle and ALH Group, to share the latest data on Valentine’s Day spending.
In love with Valentine’s Day offers
Analysing spending trends on Valentine’s Day-related goods, including chocolate and cocoa, Coupa has consistently found that consumers’ average spending increased by 9.8% in January and February over the past three years. Meanwhile, average spending during March and April was 1.6%, indicating a considerable change (512%) in consumer spending patterns.
Despite chocolate prices experiencing record highs this January, reaching $10.75 per kilogram, these cost hikes have not put off Valentine’s Day shoppers. Related product sales, including chocolate and cocoa, surged over five times in January and February 2025.
According to Coupa, this significant growth highlights changing consumer behaviours during Valentine’s Day – one of the five big annual seasonal sales periods alongside Easter, summer, Halloween and Christmas. Confectionery companies want to fill the demand with premium, flavourful innovations that build upon familiar favourites or new, novel creations.
Predictions for how total confectionery sales will fare this Valentine’s Day once sales are calculated reveal a prosperous outlook. “Despite elevated prices, chocolate sales are likely to remain strong for Valentine’s Day, driven by the emotional and gifting nature of the holiday,” says Nidhi Jain, commodity specialist at WNS Procurement. Premium and artisanal chocolates will likely see continued demand, particularly from consumers prioritising ethical sourcing and quality.
Volatility remains this Valentine’s Day
In the run-up to Valentine’s Day 2025, the confectionery sector has experienced uncertainty and instability. The sector’s volatility concerns confectioners who bank on the loved-up season as one of their core five of the year.
“The cocoa sector is navigating a period of sustained volatility as Valentine’s Day approaches,” says Jain. While cocoa futures have retreated slightly from record highs, prices remain elevated due to persistent supply constraints in West Africa, which accounts for around 70% of the world’s cocoa. Climate-related challenges, including severe droughts and the spread of crop diseases, have significantly lowered yields in major producing countries like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Additionally, chocolate manufacturers’ tight global inventories and increased demand for futures contracts indicate continued concerns over supply shortages. “While recent beneficial rainfall in West Africa could improve future yields, market uncertainty remains a key challenge for confectioners ahead of Valentine’s Day,” Jain shares.
The cocoa crisis continues
Expense has been front and centre for confectioners ahead of Valentine’s Day, with Smart Cube-owned WNS Procurement anticipating that the outlook for chocolate this February will remain dismal. This follows cocoa’s value skyrocketing by 30.7% in December 2024 alone – the largest surge seen in over six decades, primarily due to a substantial global supply deficit.
The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) reported a production deficit of 478,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2023–24 season, with end-of-season stocks projected at 1.3 million MT, representing the lowest levels in 46 years.
“Now, heading into February 2025, costs are expected to remain elevated due to the ongoing supply constraints,” says Jain. Severe droughts in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which led to poor harvests, have been to blame. Yet, this season, the cocoa sector has faced further problems, as the Harmattan winds from the Sahara harm cocoa pods and impact their growth. The cocoa swollen shoot virus disease spread in West Africa has also detrimentally affected cocoa production. These factors have led to a significant decrease in global cocoa supplies.
Shaping sales, strategically
To offset rising costs, manufacturers and brands have had to alter their pricing strategies and plans to maximise their Valentine’s Day sales and minimise risks.
“Some premium chocolate brands which cater to consumers who prioritise quality and ethical sourcing have continued to pass higher costs onto customers,” says Jain. These brands are focusing on maintaining their artisanal appeal while highlighting sustainability credentials to justify price increases.
“For mainstream and mass-market chocolate manufacturers, the situation is more complex,” Jain notes. Rather than imposing significant price hikes that could deter price-sensitive consumers, they are deploying alternative cost-mitigation strategies to keep consumers and remain competitive in the industry. Efforts include reducing product sizes (often known as shrinkflation), reformulating recipes with alternative ingredients and discontinuing less profitable product lines. Some companies also leverage promotions and multi-pack deals to maintain sales volumes without significantly altering retail prices.
Navigating supply chain issues
Some confectionery producers and brands are tapping into innovation across multiple industries to ride out the cocoa cost wave. AI-driven demand forecasting for example allows companies leverage data to predict purchasing patterns and optimise inventory management, ensuring that popular products remain available while minimising waste.
Meanwhile some brands are moving away from cocoa entirely by using alternative ingredients, experimenting with cocoa substitutes, such as carob or upcycled cacao fruit products, to reduce dependency on volatile cocoa supplies. Others are using plant-based alternatives to cater to vegan and health-conscious consumers.
Personalisation and premium experiences are another key strategy for confectioners this Valentine’s Day. “Brands are enhancing the gifting experience with customisable packaging or limited-edition flavours that add perceived value without significantly increasing ingredient costs,” says Jain.
In a year already marked by market volatility, businesses must be more attuned than ever to their businesses and the evolving buying behaviours of their customers. “To navigate these fluctuations effectively and proactively, it’s crucial for organisations to get a comprehensive view of the risks in their supply chain, so as to avoid unexpected delays, disruption and costs,” says Nari Viswanathan, senior director, supply chain strategy at Coupa Software.
How to maintain customer satisfaction
To maintain customer satisfaction, companies need to adopt a proactive, data-driven approach that enables them to manage costs while meeting consumer demand. “This Valentine’s Day, US consumers are making more intentional and cautious spending decisions, largely due to inflationary pressures,” says Viswanathan. Coupa’s latest data reveals that 64% of consumers are especially concerned about the rising cost of gifts.
“But it’s not enough for businesses to simply react to price changes; they must adopt forward-thinking strategies to drive operational efficiencies without directly passing on costs to consumers,” adds Viswanathan.
Shifting sourcing, increasing local production, or reevaluating product pricing structures to ensure they remain competitive while still safeguarding margins are examples that confectioners can explore. “By building adaptive supply chains, businesses can position themselves to capitalize on unexpected demand while mitigating the impact of external market pressures and unexpected disruptions,” details Viswanathan.
