Summary of climate impact on cocoa, wine, and coffee
- Global cocoa, coffee, and wine industries worth over $799 billion combined
- Climate change threatens crop yields despite cooling strategies like Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) intervention
- SAI reduces temperature but fails to control rainfall and humidity risks
- Major brands invest in gene editing and cultivated crops for resilience
- Industry must adopt local adaptation strategies and global cooperation urgently
The race is on to protect some of the world’s most treasured commodities.
Cocoa, coffee, and wine are absolutely not essential but they’re loved the world over and power multi-billion dollar industries.
- Cocoa: $15bn
- Wine: $515bn
- Coffee: $269bn
Grand View Research
As a result, suppliers and manufacturers are working to try to safeguard them from the devastating effects of climate change. Mars, Inc. is experimenting with gene editing to make cocoa more resilient, Barry Callebaut is exploring cultivated cocoa, and Nestlé is looking to see if coffee can be made less vulnerable to extreme weather events.
But research, published in Environmental Research Letters, has found that climate cooling strategies may not be enough to save cocoa, coffee and wine from the climate crisis.
Cooling the earth
The research team evaluated whether Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) could help counter climate impacts in leading cocoa, coffee, and wine grape regions across Western Europe, South America and West Africa.
What is Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI)
SAI is a proposed solar geoengineering approach that cools the planet by releasing reflective particles into the stratosphere, similar to the cooling that follows major volcanic eruptions.
To test SAI’s potential, the scientists used climate simulations to explore growing conditions from 2036 to 2045 in 18 key regions.
They assessed crop suitability by examining temperature, rainfall, humidity, and disease risk.
And, although SAI lowered surface temperatures, it failed to reliably maintain the environmental conditions these crops need, with only six of the 18 regions showing consistent improvement.
Cooling can’t protect crops
The study found that unpredictable rainfall and humidity played a major role in undermining SAI’s effectiveness. Although it can help to reduce temperatures, it can’t manage floods and humidity, leading to inconsistent outcomes in crop yields.
“Reducing temperature with SAI alone isn’t enough,” says study co-author Dr Ariel Morrison. “For instance, cacao species (unprocessed bean), while more tolerant of hot temperatures than coffee and grapes, are highly susceptible to pests and diseases caused by a combination of high temperatures, rainfall, and humidity.”
Dr Morrison goes on to explain that SAI climate intervention may offer temporary relief from rising temperatures in some regions, but it is not a guaranteed fix for the challenges facing luxury crop farming.
“Adaptation strategies tailored to local conditions, investment in resilient agricultural practices, and global cooperation are essential to saving these crops and the communities that depend on them,” she says.
What this means for manufacturers
These findings underscore a critical reality - there really is no silver bullet to prevent climate change and futureproof crops.
While geoengineering strategies like Stratospheric Aerosol Injection may offer partial relief, they cannot address the complex interplay of temperature, rainfall, humidity, and disease pressure that defines agricultural success.
For the food, beverage, and confectionery sectors that rely heavily on cocoa, coffee, and wine this has major implications.
1. Rising costs and supply chain volatility
As climate risks intensify, companies will face higher costs for sourcing raw materials and maintaining quality standards. This could lead to price volatility, supply shortages, and increased pressure on margins.
Premium products, such as premium chocolates and specialty coffees, could become even more exclusive, reshaping consumer expectations and market dynamics.
2. Innovation becomes non-negotiable
The race to develop resilient crops through gene editing, cultivated alternatives, and adaptive farming practices will accelerate.
Businesses that invest early in R&D and collaborate with agricultural scientists will be better positioned to secure supply and maintain brand integrity.
Expect partnerships between tech firms, agronomists, and food giants to become the norm.
3. Sustainability as a strategic imperative
Consumers are increasingly demanding transparency and sustainability.
Companies will need to demonstrate not only climate adaptation but also ethical sourcing and environmental stewardship.
This means integrating regenerative agriculture, water management, and biodiversity protection into long-term strategies.
4. Global cooperation and policy pressure
The report reinforces the need for coordinated global action. Governments, NGOs, and industry leaders must work together to fund climate adaptation programmes and support farming communities in vulnerable regions.
Without systemic change, the economic and cultural value of cocoa, coffee, and wine could erode dramatically.
The future of cocoa, coffee, and wine
In short, the luxury crops that define indulgence and tradition are experiencing an era of huge uncertainty.
Suppliers and manufacturers must innovate and adapt to protect them.
