Mondelēz puts hopes in volume growth as cocoa prices ease

What is the Mondelēz 2025 results summary?

• Mondelēz reports sharp profit declines driven by soaring cocoa input costs
• Easing cocoa prices may support future volume recovery in emerging markets
• Company expects stable pricing to gradually lift revenue and global demand
• Supply diversification includes Asia farms expansion and potential lab‑grown cocoa
• GLP‑1 drugs pose minimal long‑term risk to product volumes, says Mondelēz

Mondelēz International has just finished a difficult year. The snacking multinational, which has reported its Q4 and full year results for 2025, has once again seen declines in profit and volumes, coupled with fairly modest revenue growth. This is largely down to raw material costs.

But the picture is not looking entirely dire. As cocoa prices ease, it hopes to increase volume sales, especially in emerging markets.

Why Mondelēz is struggling

Mondelēz’s 2025 results highlight significant challenges for the company. This year, it’s seen greater declines in profit and volume compared with last year, albeit with slightly better revenue growth.

The Cadbury and Toblerone owner is faced with a range of problems, but perhaps the largest, and least surprising, is the price of raw materials. The skyrocketing price of cocoa has substantially impacted the company’s profitability.

Much as reported in the previous quarter, Mondelēz’s volumes are declining, as the multinational implements pricing increases.

Cocoa prices have now begun to ease significantly, however, and are now at levels not seen since the early part of 2024.

Mondelēz, in the short term at least, is unable to take advantage of such declines, as it has already bought its cocoa supply for 2026.

Nevertheless, the price decreases have brought optimism to Mondelēz. The multinational hopes that, in the longer term, it can benefit from the low prices.

Mondelēz‘s hopes for chocolate’s future

Mondelēz hopes to make the most of falling cocoa prices in the coming years. With lower commodity costs, price increases for its products at retail level are not as necessary, meaning the company is, at least in theory, more likely to see volume growth.

This is where the company’s top brass are placing their hopes for the future.

Mondelēz does not plan to raise prices any further in the short term, revealed the company CFO and COO Luca Zaramella.

Without the need for further price increases, Zaramella predicts, the company will eventually be able to boost revenue and volume.

Volume growth will likely come from emerging markets, suggests CEO Dirk Van de Put, particularly Latin America and AMEA.

North American consumers still have very low confidence and continue to be anxious about affordability. Therefore, he does not see a significant volume growth surge in this region.

Diversifying in cocoa

Despite optimism surrounding the cocoa price decline, Mondelēz is acutely aware of the need to be prepared for potential volatility in the future. It is therefore aiming to diversify.

The business plans to put more emphasis on operating in cocoa farms outside West Africa, particularly Asia (India and Indonesia) and Latin America (Brazil and Ecuador).

In Brazil, for example, it already has long-term agreements with the country’s large farms.

But that’s not all. The company is also looking at using “lab-grown” cocoa, explains Van de Put.

He predicts that this will soon gain regulatory approval from the EU and US, as unlike traditional cocoa it does not have associations with supply chain challenges.

Are GLP-1s a threat to Mondelēz?

The popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs continues to expand. Many users of these drugs are reporting lower desire for sweet foods, leading some to speculate that they could prove a threat for large manufacturers such as Mondelēz.

The company is keeping a close eye on the developments in GLP-1s, explains Van de Put. However, in the short-term at least, he does not believe that they pose a significant threat to the business.

In the long-term, if usage of the drugs increases significantly – for example, to around 10-20% of the US population – they may have a negligible effect. He suggests that volumes could decrease around 0.5-1.5% in the space of ten years due to the drug, which he does not think constitutes a substantial threat.

Meanwhile, brands that focus on high protein are doing well for Mondelēz, especially among wealthier consumers.

Mondelēz has seen substantial declines in profit due to the pressure of rising cocoa prices. This is undeniable. Yet with the worst of this, at least for now, in the past, the company’s fortunes may just pick up in the coming year.