Cocoa prices collapse following record highs

Cocoa market price shift summary

• Cocoa prices fell below four thousand dollars amid continued downward pressure
• Current market price sits at three thousand four hundred twenty nine dollars
• Weak buying interest drives stock accumulation in major producing countries
• Projected global surpluses signal extended softness across upcoming crop years
• Farmer concerns over storage and payment risks may affect bean quality

The price of cocoa has dropped below $4,000 per metric tonne for the first time since November 2023 (Trading Economics).

Currently sitting at $3,429 per metric tonne (13 February), and continuing to fall, the declining cost comes amidst years of volatility for one of the world’s most sought after commodities.

So, why are cocoa prices falling now? Will this downwards trend last? And what does it mean for manufacturers?

Why are cocoa prices falling?

“Weak buying interest is leading to stock accumulation among major cocoa producers, particularly the Ivory Coast and Ghana.” explains a spokesperson for financial platform Trading Economics. “Latest data showed cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivorian Coast reached 1.263 million metric tons by 8 February since the start of the season on 1 October, down 4.5% from the same period last season.”

Meanwhile, financial services company StoneX has projected a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 tonnes for the 2025/26 crop year and 267,000 tonnes for 2026/27.

“Regarding crop developments, farmers in the Ivory Coast noted sufficient soil moisture, with forthcoming rains expected to strengthen the crop and help produce high-quality cocoa beans,” says Trading Economics. “However, they expressed concerns that poor storage conditions were affecting bean quality, and some were hesitant to harvest ripe pods for fear of non-payment.”

Cocoa fluctuations over the past 12 months

(source: YCharts)

What does this mean for manufacturers?

For food and beverage manufacturers, the sharp downturn in cocoa prices offers relief and complications.

On the one hand, a sustained period of lower raw material costs could ease margin pressures after several years of historically high cocoa prices that forced many brands to reformulate, resize, or initiate multiple rounds of price increases. If the projected surpluses for 2025/26 and 2026/27 materialise, manufacturers may finally regain some breathing room in their cost structures.

However, the picture is far from straightforward. Weak farmer confidence, concerns over bean quality, and ongoing structural issues in key West African supply chains mean manufacturers cannot assume a smooth return to stable, high‑quality supply. Any hesitation among farmers to harvest, or quality degradation linked to storage problems, could introduce new volatility even in a surplus year.

For chocolate producers and wider industry players reliant on cocoa derivatives, this means continued vigilance – securing long‑term contracts, strengthening relationships with suppliers, and investing in supply chain resilience will remain critical.

Ultimately, while falling prices may signal short‑term opportunity, manufacturers will need to balance cost optimism with the realities of a sector still working through deep-rooted challenges.

The next 12–18 months could define whether cocoa markets truly normalise, or simply enter a new phase of uncertainty.