Researchers at the University of Oxford recently offered an unusually hopeful prescription for one of agriculture’s most pressing challenges.
As cocoa production comes under mounting pressure from climate change, disease and biodiversity loss, their study argued that restoring nature itself, through protecting pollinators and adopting more biodiversity friendly farming systems, is vital to safeguard the world’s cocoa supplies.
The paper found that enhanced pollination increased yields by up to 20%, with factors affecting cocoa trees’ capacity to produce pods, availability of and access to soil resources, plantation age, lower cocoa tree density, and the presence of leaf litter all also markedly increasing yields.
In other words, the world can produce more cocoa by working with nature, rather than intensifying against it.
The argument was timely. Cocoa prices had already begun climbing sharply as poor harvests in West Africa exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Extreme weather, ageing plantations and persistent crop diseases were combining to reduce yields in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the two countries responsible for around 60% of global cocoa production.
A year and a half on, the question remains, not only for chocolate manufacturers and suppliers, but also for all the smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on a crop facing unprecedented uncertainty: have the strategies charted in the paper moved beyond scientific journals and into cocoa farms and corporate sourcing strategies?
From research to reality
Dr Tonya Lander, co-author of the Oxford study, says these recommendations have been with the cocoa industry for decades. But is the industry listening?
“Increase pollination by increasing pollinator abundance, by providing pollinator habitat and avoiding the use of agricultural chemicals; include shade trees in plantations; protect and enhance plantation soils,” she explains.
Lander argues that to maintain and increase the proportion of cocoa being produced in habitat-enhancing, biodiversity centred, climate-resilient ways, cocoa buyers need to commit to buying Organic, Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance certified cocoa.
At present, she says, most progress is coming from the farmers themselves, and small companies and NGOs supporting the farmers in moving to these certification schemes.
“Given that only nine traders and processors handle 75% of the world’s cocoa, these companies have tremendous power to make positive change.”
Unfortunately, demand for organic cocoa is surprisingly low, as we know from the Netherland’s CBI (Centre for the Promotion of Imports from developing countries). In an industry report from 2025, they find that only 4% of the cocoa beans, and less than 1% of cocoa paste and powder imported to the EU in 2023, as being organic. The import volume of organic cocoa beans to the EU has not increased since 2018.
Are cocoa companies changing course?
Major chocolate manufacturers have spent years investing in farmer training, agroforestry and sustainability initiatives.
Mars, for example, has entered into two collaborative initiatives to tackle these issues. The first, a five-year collaboration with Sucden announced last year, is aimed at advancing low-carbon, climate-resilient cocoa production in farms in the Dominican Republic and Ecuador. The programme was devised to encourage farms to embrace agroforestry practices aimed at improving soil health and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, all while increasing farmers’ yields.
The second, another five-year scheme this time with ofi, is designed to accelerate the development of a climate-smart and regenerative cocoa supply chain in Ecuador, and will empower over 960 farmers to implement regenerative agriculture practices, like multistrata agroforestry and biochar applications, across more than 9,000 hectares of farmland – roughly the size of the Greek island of Santorini.
But is the sector as a whole investing enough in regenerative agriculture?
“There’s a lot more to do,” says World Cocoa Foundation (WCF) Impact Director and Head of North America, Michael Matarasso, noting that climate impacts vary significantly between cocoa-growing regions.
The WCF represents over 80% of the cocoa industry. Their mission is to drive a more sustainable, resilient and equitable cocoa sector.
“The right response might be better planting material, more appropriate shade and agroforestry, improved soil and water management, stronger pest and disease management or a combination of these,” adds Matarasso.
“We need the evidence and data to make those choices and then the investment to deliver them at scale. WCF can help by bringing the sector together around a science-based strategic approach, grounded in high-quality data and robust methodologies.”
Of course, changing climatic conditions will affect where cocoa can be grown successfully in future, and Oxford researcher Lander agrees that a more unpredictable and more extreme climate adds further complexity.
“Rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall are affecting cocoa production, and make the need for habitat-enhancing, biodiversity-centred, climate-resilient cocoa production even more pressing.”
Betting on cocoa – or beyond it
While much of the industry continues investing in improving cocoa cultivation, some are also looking into alternatives. Precision fermentation, cell-based production and cocoa-free chocolate ingredients have attracted increasing attention as potential ways of reducing dependence on climate-sensitive cocoa supplies.
A spokesperson for Lindt & Sprüngli told me, while they cannot predict the future development of cocoa crops, their current focus remains on traditional cocoa sourcing.
“At the same time, Lindt & Sprüngli continuously explores innovation in cocoa cultivation and chocolate production… and has made an investment in Food Brewer, a Swiss company researching cocoa ingredients based on natural cocoa plant cell cultures. This collaboration is research‑focused and at an early stage.”
For established manufacturers, it seems replacing cocoa entirely remains a distant prospect, while improving conventional production still appears to be where the industry’s largest investments are being made.
In the meantime, the scientific case for biodiversity-based cocoa production continues to strengthen, and awareness of pollination, agroforestry and ecosystem resilience has undoubtedly grown within the sector.
Whether that awareness is translating into measurable improvements on farms is a more difficult question; one that depends on investment, farmer incentives and the willingness of governments and companies to embed biodiversity into mainstream cocoa production.